📌 Key Facts
- Valve's odds per case: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64%, knife or gloves 0.26%.
- About 1 case in 385 gives a knife or gloves on average, and about 1 drop in 10 is StatTrak.
- A key costs $2.49, which is usually more than the case itself.
- The exterior changes the price a lot: a Factory New copy of a skin can cost several times the Field-Tested one, so every drop in the simulator gets its own float and is priced at its exterior.
- Best return in our sample: Gallery Case at about 52% of the $3.46 you spend per opening; the lowest is Revolution Case at about 32% (Steam prices, 22 Sep 2026).
- Every case in our table returns less than it costs on average. Opening is paying for the chance at a rare drop.
- Case opening sites set their own odds. Their returns are not Valve's and differ from site to site.
- The simulator is free. No skins, keys or money are involved.
What each case returns
The table multiplies every skin's Steam market price by its chance of dropping, adds the knife and glove tier, and compares the result with what one opening costs: the case plus a $2.49 key. The last column is the average spend before a knife or gloves appear, since that happens once in about 385 openings.
| Case | Case + key | Average value per opening | Return | Cost of one knife on average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gallery Case | $3.46 | $1.79 | 52% | $1,331 |
 Dreams & Nightmares Case | $4.05 | $1.99 | 49% | $1,558 |
 Fever Case | $3.38 | $1.63 | 48% | $1,300 |
 Kilowatt Case | $2.67 | $1.01 | 38% | $1,027 |
 Recoil Case | $2.88 | $1.02 | 35% | $1,108 |
 Revolution Case | $2.77 | $0.89 | 32% | $1,065 |
Steam Community Market median prices for every exterior, collected on 22 Sep 2026. Each skin's value is the average of its exterior prices weighted by how often each exterior drops, with the float drawn evenly inside the skin's own float range because Valve does not publish the float distribution. StatTrak drops are counted at the normal price, and the knife and glove tier uses the median of a priced sample from each case's pool. Key price: $2.49.
How CS2 case odds work
Valve published the drop odds per rarity through its Chinese partner Perfect World after China required games to disclose loot box probabilities. The same numbers apply to every weapon case:
| Rarity | Colour | Chance per case | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.92% | 1.25 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.98% | 6.3 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.20% | 31 |
| Covert | Red | 0.64% | 156 |
| Knife or gloves | Gold | 0.26% | 385 |
Inside a rarity tier every skin is equally likely, so a case with seven Mil-Spec skins gives each of them 79.92% ÷ 7, about 11.4%. On top of that, about one drop in ten is StatTrak. The simulator follows exactly these rules, and the bars under it compare your drops with Valve's numbers as you open.
Why the average opening loses money
Four out of five openings land a Mil-Spec skin, and the Mil-Spec skins in these cases sell for well under a dollar on the Steam market. The key alone costs $2.49. The rare tiers carry almost all of the value, but they are rare by design: a Covert skin comes once in about 156 cases and a knife once in about 385. That is why the average return in the table stays below 100% for every case, and why a lucky run in the simulator is exactly that.
"Average" also hides how uneven the results are. After 385 openings, roughly 37% of players still have no knife, because (1 − 0.0026)385 is about 0.37. Open 100 cases in the simulator a few times and you will see the spread for yourself. Our guide to whether case opening is worth it goes through the best and worst cases in more detail.
Case contents and prices
Every skin in each case, with its chance and its Steam market price on the collection date. Open a case to see the list.
Kilowatt Case — 17 skins + knife/glove pool of 13
| Skin | Rarity | Chance | Float range | Steam price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 AWP | Chrome Cannon | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–1.00 | $28.58–$113 |
 AK-47 | Inheritance | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–0.80 | $33.49–$380 |
 M4A1-S | Black Lotus | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–0.70 | $4.69–$14.92 |
 Zeus x27 | Olympus | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–0.67 | $2.64–$9.63 |
 USP-S | Jawbreaker | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $3.65–$22.05 |
 Glock-18 | Block-18 | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.67 | $0.55–$2.06 |
 M4A4 | Etch Lord | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.52–$4.52 |
 Five-SeveN | Hybrid | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.45–$3.77 |
 MP7 | Just Smile | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.51–$3.91 |
 Sawed-Off | Analog Input | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.62 | $0.44–$1.58 |
 Dual Berettas | Hideout | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.09–$0.39 |
 MAC-10 | Light Box | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.10–$1.12 |
 Nova | Dark Sigil | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.09–$0.43 |
 SSG 08 | Dezastre | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$0.81 |
 Tec-9 | Slag | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.90 | $0.10–$0.83 |
 UMP-45 | Motorized | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.80 | $0.08–$0.36 |
 XM1014 | Irezumi | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.80 | $0.08–$0.90 |
| ★ Knife or gloves (13 possible) | Rare Special | 0.26% | – | median $95.15 (sample of 8) |
Gallery Case — 17 skins + knife/glove pool of 13
| Skin | Rarity | Chance | Float range | Steam price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Glock-18 | Gold Toof | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–0.73 | $32.00–$196 |
 M4A1-S | Vaporwave | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–0.60 | $45.20–$198 |
 AK-47 | The Outsiders | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–0.90 | $5.78–$71.18 |
 P250 | Epicenter | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–0.80 | $4.69–$31.91 |
 UMP-45 | Neo-Noir | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $4.10–$50.51 |
 M4A4 | Turbine | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.85 | $1.39–$17.11 |
 Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.80 | $1.02–$6.99 |
 MAC-10 | Saibā Oni | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.66 | $1.06–$6.58 |
 P90 | Randy Rush | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.75 | $0.57–$3.80 |
 SSG 08 | Rapid Transit | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.75 | $1.21–$8.63 |
 USP-S | 27 | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.27–$5.94 |
 Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.23–$6.68 |
 MP5-SD | Statics | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.20–$1.93 |
 AUG | Luxe Trim | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.90 | $0.24–$2.71 |
 M249 | Hypnosis | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.42–$1.62 |
 R8 Revolver | Tango | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.85 | $0.34–$4.99 |
 SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.21–$1.05 |
| ★ Knife or gloves (13 possible) | Rare Special | 0.26% | – | median $95.15 (sample of 8) |
Fever Case — 17 skins + knife/glove pool of 52
| Skin | Rarity | Chance | Float range | Steam price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 FAMAS | Bad Trip | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–1.00 | $57.76–$107 |
 AWP | Printstream | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–1.00 | $51.25–$224 |
 AK-47 | Searing Rage | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $5.08–$25.00 |
 Glock-18 | Shinobu | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $5.06–$40.17 |
 UMP-45 | K.O. Factory | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $5.02–$18.49 |
 Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.57 | $0.61–$2.09 |
 Zeus x27 | Tosai | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.48–$1.96 |
 Nova | Rising Sun | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.50–$4.00 |
 Galil AR | Control | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.80 | $0.58–$3.75 |
 P90 | Wave Breaker | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.95 | $0.54–$3.56 |
 M4A4 | Choppa | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.10–$1.70 |
 MAG-7 | Resupply | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$1.88 |
 SSG 08 | Memorial | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.10–$1.28 |
 P2000 | Sure Grip | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.90 | $0.09–$0.81 |
 USP-S | PC-GRN | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.90 | $0.17–$1.45 |
 MP9 | Nexus | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.10–$1.07 |
 XM1014 | Mockingbird | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.10–$1.03 |
| ★ Knife or gloves (52 possible) | Rare Special | 0.26% | – | median $258 (sample of 8) |
Revolution Case — 17 skins + knife/glove pool of 24
| Skin | Rarity | Chance | Float range | Steam price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 M4A4 | Temukau | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–0.80 | $32.67–$130 |
 AK-47 | Head Shot | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–1.00 | $31.86–$133 |
 AWP | Duality | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–0.80 | $3.56–$13.19 |
 UMP-45 | Wild Child | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $3.62–$19.23 |
 P2000 | Wicked Sick | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $3.30–$17.86 |
 M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.80 | $0.58–$2.93 |
 Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.75 | $0.50–$2.23 |
 MAC-10 | Sakkaku | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.21–0.79 | $0.47–$1.03 |
 R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.44–$4.01 |
 P90 | Neoqueen | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.60 | $0.47–$2.91 |
 MAG-7 | Insomnia | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$0.88 |
 MP9 | Featherweight | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$0.84 |
 SCAR-20 | Fragments | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.78 | $0.08–$0.52 |
 P250 | Re.built | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.90 | $0.09–$0.79 |
 MP5-SD | Liquidation | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.08–$1.00 |
 SG 553 | Cyberforce | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.90 | $0.09–$0.83 |
 Tec-9 | Rebel | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.06–$0.87 |
| ★ Knife or gloves (24 possible) | Rare Special | 0.26% | – | median $73.27 (sample of 8) |
Recoil Case — 17 skins + knife/glove pool of 24
| Skin | Rarity | Chance | Float range | Steam price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 USP-S | Printstream | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–0.85 | $37.91–$125 |
 AWP | Chromatic Aberration | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–0.70 | $35.00–$89.96 |
 AK-47 | Ice Coaled | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–0.77 | $5.02–$17.33 |
 P250 | Visions | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–0.70 | $3.72–$10.04 |
 Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $3.87–$42.56 |
 R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.54–$4.06 |
 M249 | Downtown | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.65 | $0.43–$1.77 |
 SG 553 | Dragon Tech | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.45–$2.21 |
 P90 | Vent Rush | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.43–$1.19 |
 Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.48–$5.02 |
 FAMAS | Meow 36 | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$1.16 |
 Galil AR | Destroyer | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.09–$0.52 |
 M4A4 | Poly Mag | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.08–$1.49 |
 MAC-10 | Monkeyflage | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.08–$1.03 |
 Negev | Drop Me | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$0.77 |
 UMP-45 | Roadblock | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$0.78 |
 Glock-18 | Winterized | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.12–$1.34 |
| ★ Knife or gloves (24 possible) | Rare Special | 0.26% | – | median $97.05 (sample of 8) |
Dreams & Nightmares Case — 17 skins + knife/glove pool of 50
| Skin | Rarity | Chance | Float range | Steam price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 AK-47 | Nightwish | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–1.00 | $69.01–$163 |
 MP9 | Starlight Protector | Covert | 0.32% | 0.00–0.80 | $75.50–$130 |
 Dual Berettas | Melondrama | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $7.15–$19.51 |
 FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $7.13–$19.80 |
 MP7 | Abyssal Apparition | Classified | 1.07% | 0.00–1.00 | $7.20–$20.49 |
 PP-Bizon | Space Cat | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.67 | $0.72–$1.81 |
 G3SG1 | Dream Glade | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.71–$3.99 |
 M4A1-S | Night Terror | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.85–$1.85 |
 XM1014 | Zombie Offensive | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.50 | $0.78–$1.51 |
 USP-S | Ticket to Hell | Restricted | 3.20% | 0.00–0.76 | $0.69–$2.90 |
 Five-SeveN | Scrawl | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$0.91 |
 MAC-10 | Ensnared | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.90 | $0.10–$0.77 |
 MAG-7 | Foresight | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.70 | $0.08–$0.35 |
 MP5-SD | Necro Jr. | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.08–$0.88 |
 P2000 | Lifted Spirits | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.09–$0.90 |
 SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–0.57 | $0.11–$0.34 |
 Sawed-Off | Spirit Board | Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 0.00–1.00 | $0.08–$0.79 |
| ★ Knife or gloves (50 possible) | Rare Special | 0.26% | – | median $354 (sample of 8) |
Case opening sites are a different game
Third-party case opening sites build their own cases, set their own odds and choose their own prices, so none of the numbers above apply to them. Some publish a return to player figure and a provably fair system you can check; many do not. We opened cases on the sites in our CS2 case opening sites comparison and list the returns we measured, and several of them give free cases with code BINROLL, which is the only way to open a case there without paying.
Case opening with real money is also a legal question. In 2026 the New York Attorney General sued Valve, alleging that case opening is illegal gambling under state law. See is CS2 gambling legal for where things stand.
I am 18 or older — show case opening sites with free cases
These are the top three from our CS2 case opening sites comparison, where each is ranked on measured return, withdrawal speed and bonus terms. Claim buttons are affiliate links.
#1 KeyDrop
89% RTP in our 1,000-case test, the fastest withdrawal we timed and a huge case catalogue.
Code BINROLL
#2 CaseHug
A 20% bonus on every deposit, not only the first, plus 2 free cases without a deposit.
Code BINROLL
#3 CSGORoll
90-95% RTP on premium cases and an instant P2P marketplace for withdrawals.
Code BINROLLAffiliate disclosure: we may earn a commission if you sign up through these links, at no cost to you. Commission is not part of how we rank sites — see our methodology.
Frequently asked questions
What are the real CS2 case odds?
Valve published the odds per rarity through its Chinese partner Perfect World: Mil-Spec (blue) 79.92%, Restricted (purple) 15.98%, Classified (pink) 3.20%, Covert (red) 0.64%, and a knife or gloves 0.26%. Every skin inside a rarity tier is equally likely, and about 1 drop in 10 is StatTrak. The simulator uses exactly these odds.
How many cases do you need to open to get a knife?
On average about 385, because the knife or glove chance is 0.26% per case. That is an average, not a guarantee: after 385 openings roughly 37% of players still have no knife, and some get one on the first case. The cost table on this page multiplies 385 by the price of each case plus the $2.49 key.
Is opening CS2 cases worth it?
Not as a way to make money. Every case in our table returns less on average than the case plus the key cost, because four openings in five land a Mil-Spec skin worth well under a dollar while you pay the full price every time. Opening a case is paying for the chance at a rare item, and the average result is a loss.
Where do the prices in the simulator come from?
From the Steam Community Market median price for each exterior on the collection date shown under the table. Every drop gets a float drawn evenly inside the skin's own float range, because Valve does not publish the float distribution, and the float decides the exterior and therefore the price. StatTrak drops are counted at the normal price, which slightly understates their value, and the knife and glove tier uses a priced sample from each case's pool rather than every possible finish.
How much does a CS2 case key cost?
A key costs $2.49, or the equivalent in your currency, when bought from the in-game store. Keys cannot be resold on the Steam Community Market. The key is usually the larger part of the cost of an opening, since many cases cost well under a dollar.
Are case opening sites the same as opening cases in CS2?
No. Third-party case opening sites build their own cases and set their own odds and prices, so their return depends entirely on the site. Some publish a return to player figure and a provably fair system; many do not. Our case opening sites comparison lists the sites we tested and the returns we measured.
Can I win real skins in the simulator?
No. The simulator costs nothing and pays nothing. No skins, keys or money are involved, and there is no account. It exists to show what cases return on average before anyone spends real money.
Is case opening legal?
It depends on where you live. Some countries restrict paid loot boxes, and in 2026 the New York Attorney General sued Valve alleging that case opening is illegal gambling under state law. Opening cases with real money is not suitable for anyone under 18. Our guide to whether CS2 gambling is legal covers the current situation.